Symposium on connectivity wars: the changing geopolitics of the indo-pacific region
Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs (BILIA) has organized a symposium on “Connectivity Wars: The Changing Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific Region” on 29 November, 2018 at the BILIA auditorium. Ambassador Muhammad Zamir, Alternate President, BILIA presided over the session while Dr. Shahdeen Malik, Honorary Director, BILIA gave the welcome address. Dr. Mohammad Jasim Uddin, Senior Research Fellow, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) and Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, Professor, Dept. of International Relations, University of Dhaka and Deputy Director (Part-time), Research, BILIA presented their papers at the symposium and Dr. Syeda Rozana Rashid, Associate Professor, Dept. of International Relations, University of Dhaka was the designated discussant.
The symposium starts with the honorable Chair, Ambassador Muhammad Zamir giving a synopsis on the current geostrategic situation of the South East Asia and South Asian region, where he briefed about the‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative by China. He highlighted Bangladesh’s position in the region which has given a momentum in Bangladesh’s bilateral relations with India and China. He also outlined the underlying currents among countries like the USA, Russia, China, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan and Iran from a political as well as trade perspectives. He also expressed that here China and India both are giving Myanmar the advantage compared to Bangladesh due to their respective national interest to Myanmar.
Dr. Mohammad Jasim Uddin, in his paper titled “Indo-Pacific Region: Connectivity and Cooperation or Conflict”, focused on one specific area of Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) concerning the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) and the sub-regional initiative Bangladesh–Bhutan–India–Nepal (BBIN). He argued that Bangladesh can take economic advantage from these initiatives, although there are some geostrategic and economic complications as well. The geostrategic affairs include not only China and India but also Japan and Australia and not only focus on sea but also in land areas.
He described BCIM-EC as one of the six important economic corridors which include important areas like connectivity, trade, investment, energy, water management, tourism, among others. However, Dr. Jasim argued that despite the BCIM-EC establishing a few functional mechanisms, the institution has not yet been able to implement these. He pointed out the need for establishing linkages in industries, functions, financial and trade integration, removal of non-tariff barriers to start connectivity among member countries.
Coming to BBIN,which began in May 2015, he pointed out that Bhutan failed to keep up with it and hence it is BIN now. Here, he also pointed out some shortcomings such as the Motor Vehicle Agreement for passengers that is yet to start and BIN not being functional.
Finally Dr. Jasim pointed out that although there are certain issues which are not functional in the connectivity initiatives but they will grow and for that Bangladesh has to wait sometime.Bangladesh has to think from the political level, thehurdles should be mitigated andthen should takethe initiative to invite the connectivity.
After this speech, Ambassador Zamir pointed out that foreign policy is an area which needs to be depoliticized. For national interest,initiatives should be taken regardless of party politics.
Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, in her paper titled “Connectivity Wars and the Easternization of the World: Towards the Indo-Pacific’’ began with pointing that global balance of power for the last 200 years was West-centric where the polarity of the system influenced foreign policy of states. But the end of the structural rivalry made the world unstable where we saw the rise of lesser powers fighting against each other. However, although scholars predicted the rise of Germany or other countries as hegemons in the system, that did not clearly happen till now.
Dr. Yasmin then focused on the Easternization of the world. She noted that before the onset of industrialization, China and India provided most of the GDP of the world. However, after industrialization in Europe, Asia lost its supremacy. In the new century, we can distinctly the see rise of Asian powers which Gideon Rachman calls as Easternization of the world.
Dr. Yasmin then pointed on what are the battle groundsright now; how economic affairs may shape the next balance of power; how the old powers are taking care of the new warriors like China, India or second tier powerslike, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia; and how they are contributing to the balance of power. She raised the question that in the area of connectivity the states are taking the decisions yet why it is still a globalized world.
Focusing on to connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region, she pointed out that connectivity is not a new in international relations, although it did not kick off until the end of the bipolar rivalry. However, the US policymakers count theIndo-Pacificas one of the important geographical constructs, due to the ocean-centric policies in the post-Cold war period. She pointed out that the term “Rise of China” surfaced from 2003 in in vogue. China is now reaching at the global level with its voluminous scope of the BRI – the New Silk Road – which paved the way for reincarnation of the old globalization – a time when China traded with Rome and Egypt.
Again, in the Indo-Pacific region, the strategic arena is concerned with the Quad – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the USA, Australia, Japan and India. These four countries have their own vision of how the future should look like.
And finally Dr. Yasmin noted that Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a geo-strategic area but the future is still uncertain with the declining unipolar power of the USA and we are virtually heading toward a leaderless world.She asked, do we need a leader – if so whom – China or anyone else.
Dr. Syeda Rozana Rashid as the designated discussant summarized the topic of the symposiumin the context of global balance of power and Bangladesh. Mentioning the global powers and Easternization of the world, she saidhere we have some lacking from the eastern perspective.She pointed out that in today’s world, economic priorities are shaping politics, although the world is still full of mistrust. The future of connectivity if full of paradox as institutional and regulation related issuesin connectivity agreements are not clear yet. And in the end, she found it puzzling that whether we should take a global perspective or an Indo-Pacific perspective. Hence, she questioned in the context of Bangladesh, how we can make the best use of the BRI agreements.
In the Open Discussion Session, the Rohingya issue dominated the discussion. One discussant pointed that Rohingya issue is not either a geopolitical or an economic issue as this does not deter in materializing the BRI. One of the discussants pointed out that instead of overemphasis on BRI, perhaps, Bangladesh should focus on the seven North-eastern states of India for trade connectivity.
The event is covered by LabibMurshed, Research Assistant, Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs (BILIA).