Suffering birth pangs, China could scrap two-child policy to allow more
Hindustan Times: China could discuss the complete withdrawal of its family planning policy to allow citizens to have as many children they want during the upcoming session of its parliament in March, a population policy expert has said.
The forecast by Mu Guangzong, a scholar at the Population Research Institute of Peking University, to the Hindustan Times is supported by other expert opinions in state media and the removal of family planning policy-related contents from a draft civil code circulated last year.
Following the revelation on Monday that China experienced its lowest birthrate in nearly 60 years in 2018, the question of scrapping the policy is possibly no longer if but when.
“In China, people have been longing for the government to fully open its one-child policy, which is also the right option in a low birthrate era.
Although the government has not given a timetable for fully opening the one-child policy, it is an irresistible trend. It is expected that it will be put on the agenda of the “Two Sessions” in March next year,” Mu said late last year.
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China scrapped its one-child policy with a two-child one in 2016 but the change hasn’t had the desired effect of upping the country’s birthrate after 2018 saw two million fewer births than 2017.
“I believe the central government is considering this significant issue,” Mu said.
“Considering the changes in the country’s demographic situation, provisions related to family planning in current laws are not included in a draft civil code, which was presented to a bimonthly session of the NPC (National People’s Congress) Standing Committee,” the official Xinhua news agency had reported last year August.
“The removal of contents related to family planning policy in a draft civil code is the latest official signal from China that it may soon scrap the policy, as the country’s demographic structure undergoes fundamental changes,” the tabloid Global Times had then reported.
“This signals that China may scrap childbirth limits,” Zhan Zhongle, a law professor at Peking University told the tabloid.
In September last year, Reuters had also reported another hint from the government.
“Last month, speculation of a further easing mounted after a new stamp unveiled by China Post featured a family of two pigs with three cheerful piglets, followed weeks later by a draft of the civil code dropping all mention of family planning,” the report said.
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There are several reasons behind Beijing’s effort to overhaul its population policy.
“Currently, China is facing a challenge of population imbalance: Specifically, the interrelated problems caused by low birth rate, ageing population and gender imbalance and so on,” Mu said.
China is home to about 240 million people aged 60 or above, and the number will rise in the coming years.
“China has fallen into an “ultra-low fertility trap”. Similar with many countries troubled with a low fertility problem, the root of China’s new population crisis is a fertility rate, leading to an unsustainable development of population,” Mu added.
If Chinese couples do decide to have two or more children in the future, it will have positive effects both in the long and short terms, Mu argued.
“In the short term, the juvenile products industry in China can boost the economy from the prospect of consumption. In the long term, the birth population will be transformed into the labour force population, which can promote the development of the economy from the perspectives of both production and consumption. More children mean bigger consumption demands and a bigger labour pool,” Mu said.