Alexei Navalny: Novichok didn’t stop Russian opposition leader – but a prison sentence might
Alexander Titov/ The Conversation
After the dramatic flight into Moscow by Russian opposition figurehead Alexei Navalny – who arrived on a plane full of journalists, live streamed his defiant speech on arrival and was promptly detained at passport control – the basic question is: “What’s his plan?”
It had been clear for some time that he would be arrested as soon as he set foot in Russia – the authorities issued a warrant for his arrest on December 29. The message was clear: stay out of Russia, or face prison. Navalny defied the Kremlin and came anyway.
The dissident politician was jailed for 30 days by a Moscow court within 24 hours of stepping off the flight, on the grounds that he had violated the terms of his suspended sentence for embezzlement issued in 2017, a conviction he has always dismissed as being trumped up in order to deny him the chance to stand as a candidate in the 2018 presidential election. He will be held until a court rules on this new charge of parole violation.
Navalny’s situation calls to mind the Yukos affair, which became the defining episode of President Vladimir Putin’s first term. In 2003, Russia’s richest man Mikhail Khodorkovsky was under intense pressure to give up his Yukos oil empire and flee Russia. The oil company was expropriated for alleged tax avoidance and sold to Putin’s allies. Khordokovsky chose to stay and face prison. Get your news from people who know what they’re talking about.
Russian security officers watch a bespectacled man in a Moscow courtroom.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a business leader and opposition politician spent ten years in prison until his release in 2013. EPA/Maxim Shipenkov
At the time he thought it’d be impossible for Putin to arrest him due to domestic and international outcry. Instead he served ten years in a prison camp. Meanwhile the Russian economy prospered and the stock market boomed.
After lobbying by the German foreign minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, among others, Khodorkovsky was released in 2013 after being pardoned and went into permanent exile. He is still active as a sponsor of the Russian opposition through his Open Russia foundation, but his influence on Russian politics is negligible and it’s unclear what the ten years in prison were worth in terms of political capital.
Navalny clearly doesn’t want to become another Khodorkovsky. He wants to remain relevant politically and decided that the only way to do it is to be in Russia. But the dramatic entry aside, how is he planning on doing it from prison? Navalny has two potential strategies for building support. First, his return to Russia and any unfair prison term he might receive could galvanise his supporters and the public at large.
But this looks a little naive. While he’s the most recognised opposition leader in Russia, and has a core of committed supporters – particularly among the younger generations – his overall approval ratings are at -30%.