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US says Iran forces pulling back in Syria; others say no
AP, Washington
The Obama administration is making the case that Iran is drawing down its elite fighting force from Syria in an effort to allay fears that Tehran is using its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria to strengthen its influence across the Middle East. Yet the Iranian government said Monday it has dispatched commandos to the war and it is still taking high-ranking casualties.
Secretary of State John Kerry, who is deeply involved in trying to broker a political solution to end the five-year-old civil war between President Bashar Assad and rebels, told Congress in late February that Iran was recalling its IRGC forces from Syria. “On Iran, let me just inform everybody here that the IRGC has actually pulled its troops back from Syria,” Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “pulled a significant number of troops out. Their presence is actually reduced in Syria.”
Other administration officials have backed Kerry’s assertion.
U.S. officials, who were not authorized to publicly discuss Iran’s role in Syria and spoke only on condition of anonymity, said Tehran’s drawdown of IRGC forces will compel Assad to rely more on his own forces, which lack the training and intelligence capabilities of the IRGC.
But experts say that even if the IRGC has trimmed forces, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias Tehran helped create are still fighting. Iran stepped up its fighting in Syria in October 2015, sending mainly IRGC officers to direct Shiite foot soldiers from other nations, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“Iran has done so much to strengthen the Assad regime — stabilize the Assad regime — through the creation of these militia groups,” said Scott Modell, a former CIA officer who has conducted operations throughout the Middle East.
“They don’t want to just build up their militia groups and leave. This is their way of creating a lasting footprint” across the region, he said. “This isn’t Russia where they make sure to shore up Assad and then they downsize.”A senior congressional staffer said what the U.S. is seeing from the Iranians is not different from what it is seeing from the Russians — a withdrawal of some number of forces and resources that does not significantly change the battlefield.