Sanjal Shastri

The 2016 US elections, was probably one of the most closely watched of all time. While the outcome of every US election has its impact on international politics, the 2016 election’s impact is going to be particularly profound. This is largely due to the personality of the president-elect Donald Trump. Over the last one year, one has witnessed a complete rewriting of the rules of American political discourse. Never before as a president-elect branded an entire race as ‘rapists, drug addicts and murders’. Never before as a president-elect proposed banning entry for an entire religious group. The discourse Mr. Trump has indulged in during his election campaign forces us to take a step back and assess four years of Trump would entail for international politics. Apart from its direct impact US’ immediate neighborhood and the Middle East, a Trump presidency would have a far reaching impact across the world.

Europe, which is just about coming out of the shock of the Brexit vote has been dealt with yet another jolt. The economic and political impact of Trump’s victory will be felt across the Atlantic. Trump has been openly critical of the idea of European Union. When the Brexit results were announced, Trump gleefully welcomed the decision. Throughout this history, the EU has always the support from the US government. For the first time, it will have to deal with an American President who is openly skeptical of the idea of a EU. This comes at a time when European leaders are fighting to keep the EU together. To complicate matters, Trump’s victory has emboldened nationalists across Europe. Right from France, Austria, to Italy, like-minded nationalists are pushing from Brexit style referendums.

Politically, Trump’s perceived closeness to Putin has been a matter of concern for EU leaders. During his campaign Trump had proposed the idea of cutting down funding for the NATO. Trump questioned the requirement for the NATO and stressed on the drain it has on the American defense budget. With a resurgent and more assertive Russia, NATO’s activity has begun to occupy a renewed importance in Europe’s security calculations. If Trump does move close to Putin and cuts down funding to the NATO, the European security landscape would be completely altered.

The impact of the November 8^th result has already been on the Middle East. Every US government in the past has been working closely with Israel. Trump’s victory however, is bound to take this cooperation to another level. Trump intends to recognize Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel. Israel’s education minister issued statement hours after Trump’s victory stating the result marks the end of the two state solution. Over the next few months, one can expect Israel to be emboldened. Four years of Trump presidency will result in attention being shifted away from the two state solution.

The ISIS is the most crucial security challenge facing the Middle East. Trump like other republicans will not hesitate to escalate the use of force against them. Closer US-Russia collaboration would come as good news for Bashir Al-Assad in Syria. The Syrian peace process is now stalled because of differences between Russian and US negotiators. With Trump at the helm, the chances of US and Russia finding some common ground over Syria is going to improve.

One of Obama’s biggest foreign policy achievements was the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump is an open critic of the deal, pointing out his intention to scrap the deal during several of this rallies. The nuclear deal, along with the hard earned trust between Iran and the US is likely to be lost under Trump. A break down of Iran-US relations will have a fallout in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Considering the role Iran had been playing in Syria and Yemen, finding a resolution in these areas will require their cooperation. This cannot be achieved if there is escalated mistrust between Iran and US.

The final bone of contention is in East and South East Asia. Economically, one will have to keep an eye on US-China trade ties. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of Chinese imports and declare China as a currency manipulator. If Trump decides to carryout these threats, the economic consequences of these moves could be significant. Similarly Trump has threatened to pull out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, which has caused concern in Australia and New Zealand.

Politically, the area around the South-China Sea has been very volatile for the past twelve months. Disputes regarding the various islands in the region have threatened to set off an arms race. The US government lead by Obama has been vocal about its support for its allies like Japan and South Korea. Trump’s skeptical approach towards the security alliance with Japan threatens to alter the regional geo-politics. If Trump does decide to disengage the US from the security calculations in the region, the Chinese would stand to benefit from the new power structure.

Closer to home, in South Asia, Trump’s win is likely to impact the regional tug of war between India and Pakistan. American aid has been a major source of funding for Pakistan’s defense budget. A Republican controlled senate stalled funding for Pakistan’s purchase of F16s. The move forced the Pakistanis to look towards China. Trump has sent out signals regarding the tough stand he intends to take on Pakistan. He has expressed his intent to work with India to dismantle terror infrastructure in the region. Such an announcement did not go down well with Pakistan. If Trump does follow the Republican stance regarding aid to Pakistan, it is going to push them closer to the Chinese. A much stronger India-US cooperation to fight terror is a possibility.

Trump’s stunning victory in the elections, has sent jolts across the world. While all US elections are watched closely across the world, this time Trump’s unpredictable nature means that, the election results will be of greater consequence. Right from Europe, Asia, Middle East to South Asia, Trump’s victory is going to have far reaching consequences to geo-politics. Drawing out a detailed picture of what will happen is not possible. Predicting is one thing, but Trump is something quite different. Broadly speaking, the fallout to Trump’s victory will impact the peace process in Syria and Yemen. There is going to be serious consequences to the Iran Nuclear Deal. Given Trump’s skepticism of the NATO and EU, one will have to keep a close eye on developments in Europe over the next few months. What exactly pans out on the ground will boil down to Trump’s unpredictable nature. This only time will tell.

The author is an academic associate at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. The views expressed are the author’s own and does not reflect the views of the institution he represents.