The militarization of Iranian politics in the context of regional detente
DR. MOHAMMED AL-SULAMI/ arabnews:
At a time of renewed regional dialogue and an apparent opening between Iran and its neighbors, one could be surprised by the appointment of Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a member of the Expediency Council, as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Even if this position is under the supreme leader’s control, this is a central post in the decision-making process of Iran.
Ahmadian’s profile has similarities with his predecessor, Ali Shamkhani. Both have experience in the navy, but Ahmadian has not been politically active since his retirement from the military. On the contrary, ex-Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani is a former defense minister and presidential candidate. Ahmadian’s lack of political experience is a confirmation of the militarization of the Iranian political dynamic since the end of the 2000s.
The departure of Shamkhani seems to have been accelerated by the arrest of his former colleague Alireza Akbari and his execution in January, following an accusation of espionage by Iran’s security apparatus. The link between Shamkhani and Akbari, a dual British and Iranian citizen, and the elimination of the latter was a message sent to all members of the political elite: Presenting an alternative to the dominant view of Iranian hard-liners is a risky move, even for the insiders (khodi) of the system (nezam). At a time of popular discontent inside the country, the political establishment must be unified and support the views of the supreme leader.
The removal of Shamkhani is also a reminder of the political instrumentalization of the accusations of corruption inside the Iranian establishment. He is a political survivor of Iranian factional politics and he served under both reformist and conservative presidents, from Hassan Rouhani to Ebrahim Raisi.
In the context of the social and political tensions inside Iran, it is not that surprising that the reshaping of the decision-making process took place in favor of a military figure with no political past. Indeed, Shamkhani could have been an alternative to President Raisi’s political project and his diplomatic achievement — the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia — has been a striking reminder of the late former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s policy of detente toward Iran’s neighbors.
Shamkhani, with an ethnic Arab background, was not only a member of the Iranian political elite who was at the forefront of dialogue with Iran’s Arab neighbors, but he was also a key interlocutor for Western diplomats seeking to engage the Iranian security establishment. His removal is therefore a clear message for the reformist and pragmatic factions ahead of the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for February 2024. The system is ready to accept a very low turnout rather than political infighting at home amid rising social discontent and a looming economic crisis.
His marginalization from the Iranian daily decision-making process is also happening at the same time as the appointment of the Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Alireza Enayati — the first ambassador to the Kingdom in seven years.