Observations on the evolving dynamics in Europe
Muhammad Zamir writes for DOT:
There is general consensus after the recent 2019 EU elections that certain power blocs have lost their grip on the EU Parliament. Analysts have pointed out that both the big centre-right and centre-left blocs in the European Parliament have lost their combined majority amid an increase in support for Liberals, the Greens and Nationalists. This aspect is being taken seriously because the European Parliament helps shape EU legislation and the results will play a big part in who gets the key jobs in the European Commission, the Union’s executive.
The Center- Right EPP won 180 seats, down from the 216 in 2014. The Socialists and Democrats dropped to 146 seats from 191.Of the total number of 751 seats, the Left leaning Parties have won 392 seats – Left (GUE/NGL) -39 seats, Socialists and Democrats (S and D)-146 seats, Greens (EFA)-69 seats, Liberals (ALDE)-109 seats and Others-29 seats. The Right wing groups have won 359 seats- Independent MEPs-8 seats, Center-Right (EPP) – 180 seats, Conservative Party (ECR)- 59 seats, Populists (EFD)- 54 seats and Right Wing Nationalists (ENF)- 58 seats.
EU citizens turned out to vote in the highest numbers for two decades, bucking years of decline and significantly higher than the last elections in 2014, when fewer than 43% of eligible voters took part. Turnout in Hungary and Poland more than doubled compared to 2014 and Denmark hit a record 63% participation. Analysts have attributed this high turnout to a range of factors including the rise of populist parties and increased climate change awareness.
Pro-EU parties are still expected to hold a majority of seats however, largely due to gains made by the liberal ALDE bloc, and particularly a decision taken by the party of French President Emmanuel Macron Renaissance Alliance to join the group. This has led Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian Prime Minister and currently the leader of the ALDE to state that “It’s clear that this is a historical moment, because there will be a new balance of power in the European Parliament” . There were also major successes for the Greens, with the Group jumping from 50 to 69 MEPs.
However gains for nationalist parties in Italy, France and elsewhere have been interpreted as a move towards a greater say for Eurosceptics who want to curb the EU’s powers.
It would be important to briefly reflect on how the voting has created new dimensions in different parts of the European Union.
In Germany, both major centrist parties suffered. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats has dropped from 35% of the vote in 2014 to 28%, while the centre-left Social Democratic Union has fallen from 27% to 15.5%. The right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) performed worse than expected – winning about 10.5% – a slight improvement over its first results in 2014.
This outcome has reflected a tendency already apparent in national elections all over Europe: rejection of the status quo. Europe’s voters are clearly looking elsewhere for answers. They have underlined that that they are drawn to parties and political personalities, who according to them, they feel better represent their values and priorities.
The traditional centre-left and centre-right parties, which have dominated the EU for the last two decades appear to have lost their majority for the first time in the European Parliament. This is consistent with the tendency already apparent in national elections all over Europe: rejection of the status quo.
In the first week of July the EU Parliament was tasked with nominating five persons for the five most important positions within the EU paradigm. On 3 July the European Parliament voted and selected Right-wing Germany’s Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen to replace Jean-Claude Juncker and lead the EU Commission as its President. She’s loyal to the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a true Christian Democrat and a conservative Europhile. It is the first time in more than 60 years that a German has been given the post.
Another lady IMF chief Christine Lagarde was nominated to be the first woman to head the European Central Bank (ECB). Belgian liberal Prime Minister Charles Michel was nominated to replace European Council President Donald Tusk while Spain’s Josep Borrell has been selected as the new foreign policy chief of the European Union. They also selected David Sassoli, an Italian Social Democrat as the new President of the European Parliament. He won after beating two serious competitors – German Green Party member Ska Keller and far-left Spaniard Sira Rego. The new MEPs elected in May’s European polls took office on 2 July during a brief inaugural session before starting their voting by secret ballot.
The elections have assumed special importance as it has seen the big centrist blocs lose their majority with nationalists and Greens gaining ground. It leaves the EU more fragmented, so finding consensus on issues may be harder than in the past.
The last few weeks has witnessed upholding of EU’s commitment regarding the necessity to balance gender, political affiliation and geography when it fills its top jobs. It has required some compromises.
The EU and Britain will now both be following the evolving situation in the EU very closely. This will be particularly true with regard to the Brexit issue. Earlier, on Brexit, the European Commission negotiated on behalf of EU member states. Those negotiations ended when the UK government signed off on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement back in November. The only ones now with the legal power to change or add to the text are now the EU national leaders and not the European Commission. As depicted through the wave of indecision among national leaders over the selection of top EU jobs, it is clear that while France and Germany are still powerful, they are not all-powerful in EU circles any more. This will be something that will have to be kept in mind by the new UK Prime Minister ahead of planning trips to Berlin and Paris to request a renegotiation of the Brexit deal.